I've been super-cautious this time.

I haven't talked smack about the Republicans, about GWB, or McCain.  Haven't really commented beyond a "puh-leeze!" and some genuine laughter at Sarah Palin's ignorance and her attempts to cover for it.  EVERYONE knows which way I lean.

I've stayed away from the guessing.  The only poll data I see is what's put in front of me so that I read it reflexively, before I even have a chance to know what those numbers I'm reading ARE.  

I didn't watch any of the debates.  Zero.  What I know about each candidate comes from their websites, both of which contain their respective positions on just about everything, in writing.  And if I needed to know more, I could always read one or more of either or both's books (theyve both written books, who knew they had the time?)

But 2004 is still there in my mind.  I started out that year being absolutely committed to a candidate who was EXACTLY who I wanted to represent me in the White House, and that man WASN'T John Fucking Kerry.  It was Howard Dean.  But the DNC/DCCC thought otherwise, and so I voted for Kerry and tried to like him personally...but I knew we would win.  HOW COULD WE NOT WIN?  I had the facts down.  I had numbers---dreadful, stomach-churning numbers---of the Bush administration.  Everything from national debt to dead soldiers---with numbers like that, no man could keep the presidency, right?

Right?

Even the afternoon of the election, there were rumors on the web about "huge" Kerry wins in various precincts in various states everywhere.  "Landslides" were predicted.  Enthusiasm made people giddy.  Then something changed that afternoon, and suddenly there was Al Franken for Air America, live from Boston, looking distracted and upset, with no script and not much to say besides wait for Senator Kerry to say something...we'll all take our leads from him.  But it was glaringly obvious by then:  we were going to LOSE.  Yes, it was close.  But AMERICA---people I work with and play with and see every day and live side-by-side with---AMERICA chose that fucking motherfucking Bush for a SECOND TIME.  It was a couple of weeks before I stopped hating everything and everybody.

So this time, I stayed the hell away from it.  Clinton? That's nice.  Romney?  Gee whiz.  Giuliani?  Polite laugh.  Obama?  Sigh.  Wouldn't that be amazing?  Too bad he has no chance.  And I didn't watch Keith O. anymore.  I stopped all news except what Jon told me on The Daily Show and occasionally what Mr. Colbert said on his show.  But emotionally and mentally, I remained un-invested and unexcited, except for the day Obama won the nomination.  That was worth smiling for.

Today I say Obama is going to win.  I hope it's  by a good margin---an Obamandate?---but I'l take a 51-49, too.  BARACK OBAMA IS GOING TO BE THE 44TH PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.  And we are one helluva happy family, I can tell you that.

I wish Molly Ivins could see this.  I wonder what she'd say.  I know she'd be feeling elated, not just for getting rid of Bush, but for the awesomeness of this country electing its first black President.  Molly, if you're up there watching, I just gotta tell you that I actually saw a map of America's electoral vote count per state, and they had TEXAS showing as a BATTLEGROUND state!  High five, Molly, high five.

So that's my prediction.  If he doesn't win, it's because the Republicans have once again interfered with our voting process, for the third presidential election in a row.  And you know, this time, the Dems are not going to lie down and let these thugs walk over them.  They will fight, which is what we've been waiting for---a fighter.   Barack is definitely that.